Kathryn Bigelow = The Hurt Locker
James Cameron = Avatar
Lee Daniels = Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Jason Reitman = Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino = Inglourious Basterds
WHAT THIS MEANS
Of the ten films that will be nominated for Best Picture this year, these are the five that will have the best shot at winning the award. Here are some statistics for you. In the 60-year history of the DGA, only one film has gone on to win Best Picture without a previous Directors Guild nomination (Driving Miss Daisy in 1989). But that's not all. In the 60-year history of the DGA, only 11 films have gone on to win Best Picture without winning the DGA award. So it's fair to say that whichever film wins this award will have the best chance at winning the Best Picture Academy Award in March. There is nothing really unconventional about the DGA selections this year. Notice the absence of Clint Eastwood for Invictus, which means that the power of the Clint is not in full force this year. Also notice the absence of District 9, a film that had been gaining a lot of momentum before the DGA announcements this morning. Working in its favor are nominations from the Producers Guild and the USC Scripter Award. However, without nominations from the Golden Globes and the Broadcast Film Critics Association, along with its WGA ineligibility, District 9 will be hard-pressed at becoming a Best Picture nominee this year. My how the tables have turned in the last few days for that film. My sentiments for that film were made clear in the last post so it goes without saying that my suspicions have been confirmed. As to who will win the DGA this year, I'm finding it very hard not to predict Kathryn Bigelow for the victory. She has been cleaning up with all of the critics' groups throughout the awards season. The Hurt Locker is a well-respected and well-regarded film in the industry. If the DGA wants to make history this year, they will give it to Kathryn Bigelow. But as I've been saying and continue to say throughout the course of the season, James Cameron and Quentin Tarantino are the wild cards in this race. It's interesting to note that Tarantino is not a card-carrying member of the DGA, which says a lot about how loved Inglourious Basterds truly is. Yet because he is also not a card-carrying member of the WGA, his screenplay for Inglourious Basterds is considered ineligible for that award. This is funny because it is Tarantino's screenplay that stands the best chance at winning an Oscar right now. But we shall see what Golden Globe and Broadcast voters have to say in the coming weeks. As for Avatar, it is sitting pretty right now. It's been consistent among the guilds so far and will most likely continue its positive trend in the coming weeks. Again, a lot will be determined when the Golden Globe and Broadcast Film Critics announce their winners for 2009. But as for right now, Avatar is waiting in the wings for its grand recognition. Up in the Air is in the thick of the race as well, but I feel like it doesn't have as much momentum as Avatar or Inglourious Basterds. And Precious is just going along for the ride right now. If I had to predict my Oscar winners right now, this is what they would look like...
Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow = The Hurt Locker
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges = Crazy Heart
Best Actress: Meryl Streep = Julie & Julia
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz = Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique = Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Best Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner = Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino = Inglourious Basterds
Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Original Score: Avatar
Best Art Direction: Inglourious Basterds
Best Costume Design: Inglourious Basterds
Best Sound Mixing: Avatar
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Makeup: District 9
Best Original Song: "The Weary Kind" = Crazy Heart
Best Animated Feature Film: Up
Best Foreign Language Film: A Prophet
Best Documentary Feature: The Cove
That's right. It will be an even split of awards between The Hurt Locker, Avatar, and Inglourious Basterds. At least that's what I think would happen if the Oscars were held right now. But there's still a lot of awards to hand out before the Oscars in March. So stay tuned and we shall see what happens.
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